Left Of Bang

Cast your mind back to school physics. Remember [Hookes Law] experiment and the concepts of stress and strain? We add weights to a system, take some measurements, remove them and see of the system recovers. There are two quite distinct phases:

• Linear (fully recoverable)
• Non-Linear (irrecoverable damage)

Between these is a "point of no return". We see this in everything from a cup breaking, to the health of a living system, company finances or the development of a project.

So long as we can stay on the good side of breaking-point (left of bang) there is always the possibility of recovering. Past that point is a "completely different story". Right of bang is all about emergency action, managed decline, loss limitation, or safe abandonment and decommissioning.

Having a good model of the system helps us know when we might be crossing a line.

Having attuned senses, good intelligence, can help us too.

We can divide any system into linear states and events. An event happens suddenly. Sometimes we can repair things, but once an event has occurred there is often no going back.

Patrick Van Horne and Jason A. Riley [wrote about] their experiences in the Marines, dealing with catastrophic, violent events in an ongoing situation of high risk. Events often have tell-tale signs that precede them. If we can recognise those indicators we can take proactive, preventative steps. Other useful sources on reading the situation around risk include Dr. George Thompson's [verbal judo] and Chris Voss' Never Split the Difference. Key concepts are:

• attuning to warning signs
• know thyself (capabilities, limits)
• planning alternatives and escape routes
• escalation and de-escalation

Information management. Hiding information (abstraction for convenience) is often fatal. Drowing in too much information is equally dangerous. Attention is everything. Attending correctly is a skill.

Mono-cultures, one supplier, one route, one way out, is very dangerous. Don't build a trap for yourself. Diversify.

A killer is overconfidence and ambition, due to numbers, money, perceived prestige, sales puff and bluster, toxic masculine cultures.

There are old pilots and bold pilots, but there are no [old, bold pilots].

Ignoring clear signs. If people tell you they are criminals, believe them. It's literally in the Terms and Conditions. Companies will often tell you exactly what assholes they are and what abuse you can expect. Don't ignore it.

If experts with tens of thousands of hours of experience tell you not to do something maybe [listen to them].